The 2011 Census - What will it tell us?

There have been regular reports in the media in recent months that say the size of the Irish workforce has been decreasing over the past two years, as more and more non-Irish and Irish nationals leave the country, and that unemployment has been rising starkly. Is this a fair reflection of what has been happening?

The most recent population figures available show that emigration from Ireland in the twelve months to April 2010 was estimated to have remained broadly constant at 65,300 for the previous year. However, the number of immigrants into Ireland fell sharply, from 57,300 to 30,800, over the same period. These combined changes have resulted in an increase in net outward migration from 7,800 in April 2009 to 34,500 in April 2010. While the level of overall migration remained relatively constant during that period emigration among Irish nationals increased significantly as a percentage of overall emigration last year, up from 18,400 in April 2009 to 27,700 in April 2010. This is the highest level of net outward migration since 1989 and there is strong evidence of further net emigration already during the past year and the ESRI estimated that the level of net migration ran at approximately 8,000 per month during the first quarter of 2011. Against this background we have seen a shrinking of the size of our labour force, i.e. those available to work, over much of the past two years.

The forthcoming Census in April 2011 will provide a much more accurate baseline figure for the size of the population, the level of emigration that has taken place and the workforce. It will ask questions about where people live now and where they lived one year ago, as well as nationality and ethnic/cultural background, to give a more accurate and up-to-date, picture. The overall picture to emerge is likely to be one of a population and a workforce that is still growing over the long term, but which has been beset by short-medium term net emigration, particularly among younger, male, Irish nationals.

More importantly, the 2011 census will also ask about whether people consider themselves to be employed, unemployed, retired, studying, etc. Since the 2006 Census we have had to rely on estimates of the unemployment rate based on two, smaller, monthly and quarterly surveys that take place on a regular basis. The monthly figures that make headlines in the media tend to be these, despite their being based on a benchmark last established in 2006. The published figures rely on Live Register statistics from the Department of Social Protection and these are adjusted each quarter with results from the CSO’s own Household Budget Survey. These two sources only give a partial picture of employment and can only guesstimate the level of employment and unemployment to provide the monthly labour force statistics. As one statistician put it – it’s like sending a rocket into space, and not checking if it is on course for five years : usually the instruments will give you a rough idea of where you are, but you can never really be sure until you return to Earth!

The number of people in employment overall was estimated to have fallen from 2.1 million in 2008, to 1.9 million in 2009, and to 1.83 million by March 2011. Unemployment has continued to rise throughout although it seems to have stabilised sometime between the beginning of this year and now. The last Quarterly Household Budget Survey (for October – December 2010) statistics issued in mid-March showed a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 14.7% overall.

It is easy to get bogged down in the detail of monthly and quarterly estimates. The more accurate figures are those that come about as a result of the Census. It is worth noting that the percentage of the labour force unemployed was just 4.5% of the total workforce back in May 2006 when the last, full Census was conducted. In real terms, by April 2011 there were an estimated 1.83 million people employed and the unemployment percentage of the workforce has more than trebled over the past five years to an estimated 14.7%.

An interesting aside here is that direct costs related to unemployment have risen significantly in the past few years. Social welfare expenditure amounted to 15.6% of Gross national income in 2009. Ten years previously it was just 8.2%.